Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 subtype continues to persists in a number of countries in Asia and Africa, and remains a major public health concern. Rapidly changing agricultural intensification, landscapes and markets over the past few decades have resulted in significant changes in the size and spatial distribution of poultry and pig farms as well as their connectivity between farms, which affect the dynamics and spillover of avian influenza at the human- animal interface.
This project aimed to develop and integrate mathematic, statistical and agent-based models to predict the potential dynamics and spillover of avian influenza at the human-animal interface and to evaluate the effects of various control measures on avian influenza virus transmission and spread.
The project was build around three main types of activities. First, we aimed to create a series of new data sets describing the poultry host distribution, the environment and wild bird movements. Second, we aimed to integrate these data to improve our understanding of avian inlfuenza at multiple spatial scale and to integrate them at multiple spatial scales. Third, we aimed to use mathematical modelling to predict the potential spread and spillover of HPAI H5N1 in different countries.
SpELL staff involved in the project:
Alongside SpELL, the other partners involved in this project are:
Spatial analysis and characteristics of pig farming in Thailand
W. Thanapongtharm, C. Linard, P. Chinson, S. Kasemsuwan, M. Visser, A. E. Gaughan, M. Epprech, T. P. Robinson, and M. Gilbert.
"BMC Veterinary Research", Vol. 12, Issue 1, 2016.
Role for migratory wild birds in the global spread of avian influenza H5N8
The Global Consortium for H5N8 and Related Influenza Viruses.
"Science", Vol. 354, Issue 6309, Pages 213-217, 2016.
H7N9 and H5N1 avian influenza suitability models for China: accounting for new poultry and live-poultry markets distribution data
J. Artois, S. Lai, L. Feng, H. Jiang, H. Zhou, X. Li, M. S. Dhingra, C. Linard, G. Nicolas, X. Xiao, T. P. Robinson, H. Yu, and M. Gilbert.
"Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment", Pages 1-10, 2016.
Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 18.104.22.168 viruses with spatial cross-validation
M. S. Dhingra, J. Artois, T. P. Robinson, C. Linard, C. Chaiban, I. Xenarios, R. Engler, R. Liechti, D. Kuznetsov, X. Xiao, S. V. Dobschuetz, F. Claes, S. H. Newman, G. Dauphin, and M. Gilbert.
"eLife", Vol. 5, Pages e19571, 2016.
Clade-level Spatial Modelling of HPAI H5N1 Dynamics in the Mekong Region Reveals New Patterns and Associations with Agro-Ecological Factors
J. Artois, S. H. Newman, M. S. Dhingra, C. Chaiban, C. Linard, G. Cattoli, I. Monne, A. Fusaro, I. Xenarios, R. Engler, R. Liechti, D. Kuznetsov, T. L. Pham, T. Nguyen, V. D. Pham, D. Castellan, S. Von Dobschuetz, F. Claes, G. Dauphin, K. Inui, and M. Gilbert.
"Scientific Reports", Vol. 6, Pages 30316, 2016.
Risks of Avian Influenza Transmission in Areas of Intensive Free-Ranging Duck Production with Wild Waterfowl
J. Cappelle, D. Zhao, M. Gilbert, M. I. Nelson, S. H. Newman, J. Y. Takekawa, N. Gaidet, D. J. Prosser, Y. Liu, P. Li, Y. Shu, and X. Xiao.
"EcoHealth", Vol. 11, Issue 1, Pages 109-119, 2014.