New publication on COVID-19 in The Lancet

Published on February 19, 2020, by Marius Gilbert

Egypt, Algeria and Republic of South Africa are the African countries most at risk for coronavirus COVID-19 importation in the continent, due to high air traffic with the contaminated Chinese provinces.

Figure Map

But these countries are also among the best equipped on the continent to quickly detect and deal with new cases. In other African countries, the risk of importation is lower, but health organization deficiencies raise concerns about rapid spread.

The paper can be accessed here

This modeling work was carried out in collaboration with Vittoria Colizza (INSERM/Sorbonne) and Moritz Kraemer (University of Oxford).


Gilbert M, G Pullano, F Pinotti, E Valdano, C Poletto, PY Boëlle, E D’Ortenzio, Y Yazdanpanah, SP Eholie, M Altmann, B Gutierrez, M Kraemer, V Colizza (2020) Preparedness and vulnerability of African countries against importations of COVID-19: a modelling study. The Lancet doi 10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30411-6.